Present-day warm pool constrains future tropical precipitation

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Future changes in tropical precipitation affect the livelihood of world’s human population and ecosystems. Climate models project an increased rainfall intensification under anthropogenic warming, but uncertainties distribution magnitude remain large. Here, we identify a strong positive relationship between present-day Indo-Pacific warm pool size projected central-to-eastern Pacific using multi-model simulations. Models with larger excessive future warming eastern due to intensified ocean stratification which reduces zonal sea surface temperature gradient Pacific, resulting weakening Walker circulation increases Pacific. Based on this relationship, uncertainty can be reduced by approximately 25%, demonstrates that improved simulation is important for reliable projections.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Communications earth & environment

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2662-4435']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00620-5